As we reach the end of winter and the first signs of spring come into the air, so too do juniors see the approaching summer, and then college applications looming on the distant horizon, gleaming with promise. This is the time when many students first come to us to ask about their own admissions in the year ahead, and the most common questions they ask are about their odds and chances.
This is also the time when information starts coming out about this past year’s application cycle. While the full results aren’t out yet, we’re starting to see how many people applied, and how many of them got in. In this article then, we’re going to go through some of the data we’re seeing, and analyze what it means for your own application chances in the coming fall. Let’s get started!
Shifting Trends in Early Application Rates
The only results which are out currently are those from the early round of applications. Admissions officers are still hard at work pouring over regular decision applications, and will release the results soon, but for now we’ll work with what we have. Note that schools are releasing less data about their early round results than they used to, but this is not universal, and between the schools that are sharing data and the Common App, we can draw some conclusions.
The first thing that we have seen is that application rates stayed high or increased at schools which remained test optional, while declining at schools that returned to requiring standardized test scores. This is unsurprising, but it’s worth noting, as many of these declines were somewhat precipitous. Here are some specific trends we saw at top universities:
- UPenn saw a significant increase in application rates. While they did not release any information on how many applicants were accepted, we can assume the rate went down if they maintained a constant number of acceptances in the early round. More than 9,500 students applied early to Penn, up from around 8,500 applicants last year. This also came as Penn announced a major expansion in financial aid aimed primarily at middle-class families.
- Notre Dame saw a 16% increase in REA applications, jumping from 11,163 last year to 12,917 this year. 1,669 of these applicants were admitted; a 12.9% acceptance rate. Notre Dame also became need-blind for all applicants in 2024, which likely contributed to the school’s increase in popularity.
- UT Austin saw a massive increase in popularity, with application numbers jumping 24.3%. In-state application did increase by 12%, but the primary driver was out-of-state applicants, which soared by 48%. UT suggests several reasons for this, including new majors and academic programs, but we believe the biggest driver of this increase is their presence on the Common App, which makes it far more viable for out of state students to apply compared to when they used the ApplyTexas system only.
- Duke saw a more modest increase of 8%, with 849 of those students admitted. The sharpest increase has been applicants from the Carolinas, as Duke announced a major new scholarship two years ago which offers full tuition to students from the Carolinas with a family income under $150,000 annually. Duke admitted 49% of their entering class through the ED round.
- Columbia is an interesting case; they saw a decrease of 2.3% in application numbers in the early round from last year, despite remaining test optional. Our belief is that the remarkable amount of press coverage around the campus protests at Columbia convinced some students to apply elsewhere. They were hardly the only campus to see these protests of course, but they were more widely covered than those at many of their contemporaries.
- Brown saw its ED acceptance rate rise to 18%, the highest in years, as there was a precipitous decline in the number of students who applied early; 1,200 fewer than last year. This was due in large part to Brown reintroducing testing requirements. There was a 22% increase in the number of international students who applied, likely driven by Brown becoming need-blind for international students for the first time this year.
- Yale saw early application numbers dip by 14% from last year, likely as a result of their new test-flexible admissions policy. While this policy is broader than many returns to requiring standardized tests, it was still enough to sharply cut the number of applicants. Most of this drop was from international applicants, who saw a decrease of 30% in total application numbers, compared to a 9% drop for domestic applicants.
From this data, we can draw a few immediate conclusions. First, and most obviously, that schools which reintroduce standardized testing requirements see a drop in application numbers generally, but this is most obvious at top colleges. UT Austin, for example, also began requiring standardized test scores again, and they saw a marked increase in the number of applications they received. It is specifically these top schools where test optional policies can sway applicants.
Also notable is how impactful financial aid policies and initiatives have been. This is, perhaps, unsurprising. College is very expensive, and so students are more likely to apply to a college that is clearly affordable due to generous financial aid policies. Many students we work with each year take financial aid into consideration when building a college list, and it is no surprise that bold new policies draw in greater numbers of applicants.
Finally, Columbia shows us that not all press is good press. A significant allure of top colleges is their reputation, and getting in the news for the wrong reasons can greatly damage this reputation. Parents may be more hesitant to send their children to a college which seems dangerous on the news, regardless of the situation on the ground.
A Note on Questbridge
Many colleges announce their Questbridge acceptances alongside their early round decisions, but these are tracked and totalled differently. A school’s Questbridge acceptance rate is generally not announced, and since so few students apply through this system, it has little impact on the overall application rate. If you are interested in learning more about Questbridge, see our article here.
Broader Application Trends and Predications
Now that we’ve looked at what some specific schools have seen the past year, let’s look at broader application trends around early applications. Luckily, the Common App releases a significant amount of data, which we can use to draw some broad conclusions about who is applying, and where, and how.
Of course this doesn’t capture the actions of all applicants; not every school uses the Common App, and not every student who applies does so via the Common App. That said, it is still a useful tool to draw broad patterns from, and to gain a sense of how applications are proceeding broadly.
Looking just at students who submitted applications by November 1, we can note a number of broad trends in the data:
- Overall application rates are up 6% from last year, with 904,860 students applying to college by Nov 1
- Certain demographic groups grew far faster than the average; under-represented minorities saw applications increase by 16%, first generation applications grew by 19%, and students eligible for a Common App fee waiver grew by 13%
- Other groups grew more slowly; there was a 5% growth in international applicants most notably. This is the first time since 2019 that domestic applicant growth outpaced international growth
- Growth was not evenly distributed geographically; it was by far the fastest in the Southwest at 29%, students from more urbanized areas applied more often than their rural counterparts
- Applications to public colleges grew by 12%, while applications to private schools grew by 8%. Growth rates were slowest for the most selective colleges, averaging 5%
There is a notable gender divide in early applications, with 511,874 women applying compared to 392,461 men. The growth rates among genders are approximately equivalent; more women than men applied five years ago, and the same holds true today.
Overall, we can draw a few conclusions from these trends, and from there make some predictions. The first, and safest predication, is that application rates to colleges generally will continue to rise. While we do not anticipate extremely sharp increases for the most part, overall, we do anticipate seeing more students apply to college next year than this, and a larger share of those students apply in the early round.
We anticipate growth will continue to be highest amongst underrepresented groups, specifically first gen and low income student populations. This is because most students outside of these populations already apply to college, so there is not much room for overall growth. We do anticipate that the number of early applicants will rise across all groups.
Early applicants are expected to rise because more and more students are thinking about college earlier, and more of them are looking for ways to increase their odds of acceptance. Indeed, we expect early application rates to rise more than overall application rates for this reason.
On a more micro level, we anticipate that as more schools return to requiring standardized test scores, they will see drop-offs in application rates. This is primarily true for the very top colleges; state schools have not seen corresponding dips. This doesn’t mean that getting in will be easier, but there may be less competition than in previous years.
Final Thoughts
College applications are always stressful, and as a new group of juniors begins to look ahead to them, we hope that this information gives them a sense of what they’re in for. We’ve found that understanding the odds you face might not make them easier, but it does reduce the stress of the unknown. A known and understood challenge feels far more manageable, the kind of thing you can face with your eyes open, and succeed at conquering.
Of course, as GI Joe said, knowing is half the battle, but it’s only half. Now that you know something of the challenges you face, you may want some help in approaching them. Ivy Scholars is here to help. Our mentors have a deep understanding of how to approach college applications strategically, and how to help you craft the best essays, to truly show off your unique strengths. Schedule a free consultation today to learn how we can help you get into the college of your dreams.
